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Category MUsings

Let’s Talk About Soundview

In New York City, one common argument against congestion pricing (or in fact, against any policy designed to further the interests of anyone outside an automobile) is that because outer borough residents are all car-dependent suburbanites, only Manhattanites would benefit. For example, film critic John Podhoretz tweeted: “Yeah, nothing easier that taking the subway from Soundview or Gravesend or Valley Stream.” Evidently, Podhoretz thinks these three areas are indistinguishable from the outer edges of suburbia: places where everyone drives everywhere. But let’s examine the facts. Soundview is a neighborhood in the Southeast Bronx, a little over 8 miles from my apartment in Midtown Manhattan near the northern edge of the congestion pricing zone. There are three 6 train subway stops in Soundview: Elder Avenue, Morrison Avenue, and St. Lawrence Avenue. Soundview zip codes include 10472 and 10473. In zip code 10472* only 25.7 percent of workers drove or carpooled to work according to 2023 census data; 59.6 percent use a bus or subway, and the rest use other modes (including walking, cycling, taxis and telecommuting). 10473, the southern half of Soundview, is a bit more car-oriented- but even there only 45 percent of workers drive alone or carpool. 41 percent of 10473 workers use public transit- still a pretty large minority by American standards, and more than any American city outside New York. In the two zip codes combined there are just 45,131 occupied housing units, and 24,094 (or 53 percent) don’t have a vehicle. In other words, not only do most Soundview residents not drive to work, most don’t even own a car. Gravesend, at the outer edge of Brooklyn over 12 miles from my apartment, is served by three subway stops on the F train alone: Avenue P, Avenue U and Avenue X. It is also served by […]

Decriminalizing Jaywalking: The Early Data

In recent years, three states have legalized or decriminalized jaywalking: Virginia and Nevada did so in early 2021, and California legalized jaywalking at the start of 2023.  The traditional argument for anti-jaywalking laws is that they protect pedestrians from themselves, by limiting their ability to walk in dangerous traffic conditions. If this argument made sense, we would have seen pedestrian traffic fatalities increase in less punitive states. For example, if jaywalking laws were effective, California’s pedestrian death rate would have increased in 2023 (when jaywalking was legalized). Instead, the number of deaths decreased from 1208 to 1057, a 12 percent drop. (Relevant data for all states is here). Although pedestrian deaths decreased nationally, the national decrease was only about 5 percent (from 7737 to 7318). On the other hand. the data from Nevada and Virginia is less encouraging. As noted above, jaywalking was decriminalized in those states in 2021, so the relevant time frame is 2021-23. During this period, pedestrian deaths increased quite modestly in Virginia (from 125 to 133) and more significantly in Nevada (from 84 to 109). On balance, it does not seem that there is a strong trend in either direction in these three states- which (to me) supports my previously expressed view that Americans should be trusted to walk where they like rather than being harassed by the Nanny State.

Where sale prices are going up

The conventional wisdom (based on Census estimates) seems to me that urban cores have lost population since COVID began, but are beginning to recover. But mid-decade Census estimates are often quite flawed. These estimates are basically just guesses based on complicated mathetmatical formulas, and often diverge a bit from end-of-decade Census counts. Is there another way to judge the popularity of various places? Perhaps so. I just uncovered a database of real estate price trends from Redfin. Because housing supply is often slow to respond to demand trends, housing prices probably reflect changes in demand. What do they show? First let’s look at the most expensive cities: San Francisco and New York City where I live now. If conventional wisdom is accurate, I would expect to see stagnant or declining housing prices in the city and some increase in suburbia. In Manhattan, the median sale price for condos and co-ops was actually lower in 2024 than it was in mid-2019, declining from $1.25 million in August 2019 to $1.05 million in August 2024.* Similarly, in the Bronx multifamily sale prices decreased slightly (though prices for single-family homes increased). By contrast, in suburban Westchester County, prices increased by about 30 percent (from just under 250k to 325k). Similarly, in Nassau County prices increased from 379k to 517k, an increase of well over one-third. So these prices suggest something like a classic suburban sprawl scenario: stagnant city prices, growing suburban prices. In San Francisco, by contrast, property values declined everywhere. City prices declined from $1.2 million in August 2019 to just under $1 million today; in suburban Marin County, the median price declined from $633k to $583k. So sale price data certainly supports the narrative of flight from expensive cities. What about places that are dense but not quite as expensive? But […]

Apples to apples housing cost comparisons

I recently ran across an interesting discussion on Twitter about housing costs. Someone praised Chicago’s low housing costs, and someone else responded that because Chicago’s most troubled neighborhoods are so unusually dangerous and disinvested (compared to the most troubled parts of a safer city like New York), the low costs of these areas artificially deflated citywide averages. To put it another way, to compare Chicago and New York you should look at comparable neighborhoods rather than regionwide averages. For example, one reasonable comparison might be between Chicago’s reasonably desirable inner suburbs and New York’s. I picked four suburbs that I have visited and that are reasonably close to city boundaries: Great Neck and Cedarhurst on the New York Side, Skokie and Evanston on the Chicago side. According to Trulia.com, the cheapest two bedroom condo* (other than one that clearly needs major renovations) in Evanston sells for $115,000 and the cheapest in Skokie for $165,000. By contrast, Great Neck condos start at around $350,000, and Cedarhurst prices are similar. Similarly, elite intown areas are cheaper in Chicago. I looked at Chicago’s Lakeview, where I spent part of my honeymoon five years ago; two-bedroom units there start at $235,000. By contrast, in Manhattan’s Upper West Side such units start at $730,000 (not counting units that require extensive renovation or are income-restricted). To sum up: regional averages do seem to reflect the reality of housing costs, at least in these two cities. *I picked two bedroom condos for the somewhat arbitrary reason that I currently live in a two-bedroom apartment. *

Market Urbanism MUsings May 11, 2019

1. Recently at Market Urbanism A great new paper on how government fights walking by Michael Lewyn Many readers of this blog know that government subsidizes driving- not just through road spending, but also through land use regulations that make walking and transit use inconvenient and dangerous.  Gregory Shill, a professor at the University of Iowa College of Law, has written an excellent new paper that goes even further. Why Japanese Zoning More Liberal Than US Zoning by Nolan Gray Why did U.S. zoning end up so much more restrictive than Japanese zoning? To frame the puzzle a different way, why did U.S. and Japanese land-use regulation—which both started off quite liberal—diverge so dramatically in terms of restrictiveness? Democratic Candidates on Housing by Jeff Fong Anti poverty programs have been taking center stage as the 2020 Democratic primary heats up. Proposals from Kamala Harris and Corey Booker target high housing costs for renters and make for an interesting set of ideas. These plans, however, have major shortcomings and fail to address the fundamental problem of supply constraints in high cost housing markets. Against Spot Text Amendments by Nolan Gray As zoning has become more restrictive over time, the need for “safety valve” mechanisms—which give developers flexibility within standard zoning rules—has grown exponentially. What Should I Read to Understand Zoning? by Nolan Gray We are blessed and cursed to live in times in which most smart people are expected to have an opinion on zoning. Blessed, in that zoning is arguably the single most important institution shaping where we live, how we move around, and who we meet. Cursed, in that zoning is notoriously obtuse, with zoning ordinances often cloaked in jargon, hidden away in PDFs, and completely different city-to-city. Homeownership and the Warren Housing Bill by Emily Hamilton  Elizabeth Warren’s housing bill has received a lot of love from those who favor […]

Market Urbanism MUsings March 1, 2019

1. Recently at Market Urbanism Any Green New Deal Must Tackle Zoning Reform by Nolan Gray According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), transportation and electricity account for more than half of the US’ greenhouse gas emissions. As David Owen points out in his book “Green Metropolis,” city dwellers drive less, consume less electricity, and throw out less trash than their rural and suburban peers. This means that if proponents of the Green New Deal are serious about reducing carbon emissions, they will have to help more people move to cities. New York State’s Property Tax Cap by Michael Lewyn New York’s Gov. Cuomo has recently proposed a tax cut that buys popularity for state lawmakers on the backs of municipalities.  In 2011, the state passed a law to limit local governments’ property tax increases to 2 percent or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower.  This cap was originally temporary, but Cuomo now proposes to make it permanent. What Should YIMBY’s Learn from 2018? by Nolan Gray Believe it or not, the YIMBY movement won a lot in 2018. And rolling into 2019, elected officials at every level of California government—from the state’s new Democratic governor to San Diego’s Republican mayor—are singing from the YIMBY hymn sheet. All in all, it wasn’t a bad year for a movement that’s only five years old. But what really made 2018 such an unexpected success for YIMBYs? Yimbyism: the Evolution of an Idea by Jeff Fong Five years ago everything in California felt like a giant (land use policy) dumpster fire. Fast forward to today we live in a completely different world. Yimby activists have pushed policy, swayed elections, and dramatically shifted the overton window on California housing policy. And through this process of pushing change, Yimbyism itself has evolved as well. Evidence that home-sharing doesn’t raise rents by Michael Lewyn […]

Market Urbanism MUsings December 7th 2018

1. Recently at Market Urbanism: Two Cheers for PHIMBY by Michael Lewyn One alternative to market urbanism that has received a decent amount of press coverage is the PHIMBY (Public Housing In My Back Yard) movement.  PHIMBYs (or at least the most extreme PHIMBYs) believe that market-rate housing fails to reduce housing costs and may even lead to gentrification and displacement.  Their alternative is to build massive amounts of public housing. New and Noteworthy: Randy Shaw’s Generation Priced Out by Michael Lewyn In Generation Priced Out, housing activist Randy Shaw writes a book about the rent crisis for non-experts.  Shaw’s point of view is that of a left-wing YIMBY: that is, he favors allowing lots of new market-rate housing, but also favors a variety of less market-oriented policies to prevent displacement of low-income renters (such as rent control, and more generally policies that make it difficult to evict tenants) “Order without Design: How Markets Shape Cities” Out Today by Nolan Gray Alain Bertaud’s long awaited book, Order Without Design: How Markets Shape Cities, is out today. Bertaud is a senior research scholar at the NYU Marron Institute of Urban Management and former principle urban planner at the World Bank. “Order Without Design”, a new guide to urban planning by Anthony Ling This book is an attack on current city planning and rebuilding. This is how Jane Jacobs opened her 1961 classic “The Death and Life of Great American Cities”. It wouldn’t be an inappropriate opener for Alain Bertaud’s upcoming “Order Without Design”. 2. Also by Market Urbanists: Nolan Gray‘s viral tweet critiquing local control of land use: Local control is America’s weirdest fetish. Every single one of these photos shows a room full of people—in no way representative of their respective communities—agitating against affordable, multifamily, and/or mixed-use housing. Every single one was taken in 2018. pic.twitter.com/4bW2aDwPDI — Nolan Gray (@mnolangray) December 2, […]

Market Urbanism MUsings November 16, 2018

1. Recently at Market Urbanism: Three Policies for Making Driverless Cars Work for Cities by Emily Hamilton To avoid repeating mistakes of the past, policymakers should create rules that neither subsidize AVs nor give them carte blanche over government-owned rights-of-way. Multiple writers have pointed out that city policymakers should actively be designing policy for the driverless future, but few have spelled out concrete plans for successful driverless policy in cities. Here are three policies that urban policymakers should begin experimenting with right away in anticipation of AVs. Rent Control Makes It Harder to Vote with Your Feet by Gary Galles devolving political power to lower level governments does not serve citizens’ rights when it comes to rent control, because rent control paralyzes owners’ ability to escape imposed burdens by voting with their feet. 2. Also by Market Urbanism writers: Nolan Gray at Citylab: Voters Said No in California, but Other States Have Rent Control Battles Looming Michael Lewyn at Planetizen: The Lincoln Park Story (On Daniel Hertz new book on the gentrification of the Chicago neighborhood) Michael Lewyn at Planetizen:  New Urbanists and New Housing (about the friendly-but-troubled Market Urbanist/New Urbanist relationship) 3. At the Market Urbanism Facebook Group: Roger Valdez for Forbes: How To End The ‘Housing Crisis’ Roger Valdez for Forbes: HQ2 Frontlash Begins: The Answer Is More Housing, Some Built By Amazon Isabella Chu asks: Are people equally concerned about how to bring jobs to the once flourishing and housing rich older cities of the northeast? Anthony Ling asks: What are your thoughts on Richard Florida’s petition against Amazon HQ2’s “auction”? Via Joe Wolf: Seattle’s Most Influential People 2018: The YIMBYs Via Mirza Ahmed: Paid parking could be coming to Tacoma Dome Station Via Elizabeth Connor: Why we should pay more for parking Via Robert Wilson: At “Eleventh Hour,” City Rejects Tiny Home Village Plan to Relocate to TAXI Campus Via […]

Market Urbanism MUsings October 25, 2018

  1. Recently at Market Urbanism: Response to “Steelmanning the NIMBYs” by Michael Lewyn Scott Alexander, a West Coast blogger, has written a post that has received a lot of buzz, called  “Steelmanning the NIMBYs”; apparently, “steelmanning” is the opposite of “straw manning”; that is, it involves making the best possible case for an argument you don’t really support. The land price argument and why it fails by Michael Lewyn One common argument against all forms of infill development runs something like this: “In dense, urban areas land prices are always high, so housing prices will never be affordable absent government subsidy or extremely low demand. 2. Also by Market Urbanism writers: Nolan Gray at Strong Towns: Wide Streets as a Tool of Oppression Nolan Gray at CityLab:  The Improbable High-Rises of Pyongyang, North Korea Nolan Gray at Strong Towns: What if Lexington Got Serious About Student Drunk Driving? 3. At the Market Urbanism Facebook Group: Randy Shaw launched pre-orders for his upcoming book, Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America Donald Shoup for Planning Magazine: Parking Price Therapy Nolan Gray shares the campaign site for a YIMBY candidate, Sonja Trauss for Supervisor 2018 Matt Miller asks: What’s the future of retail? Mark D Fulwiler says: Only about 4% of all commuters ( on average ) take mass transit on any given day Ben Barov asks: Are vacancy taxes market urbanism? Andrew Mayer asks: How much urban housing needs to be built to fix the deficit of supply? James Hanley likes open space on waterfronts, but keeps thinking of Jane Jacobs‘ criticisms of big parks.  “What are your responses to this?” Via Adam Hengels: Steelmanning the NIMBYs Via Shawn Ruest: Elizabeth Warren’s New Bill Would Spend $500 Billion on Housing Via Carl Webb: So You Want to Change Zoning to Allow for More Housing Via Stephen Bone: How Singapore Solved Its Housing Problem Via Michael Burns: A Network […]

Market Urbanism MUsings September 28, 2018

1. Announcements: MUsings are back!!  This week, we’ll get you caught up on the latest on our site and social media. Be sure to check out and share the new documentary video produced by The Institute for Humane Studies’ Josh Oldham, in collaboration with MU’s Nolan Gray and Sandy Ikeda. 2. Recently at Market Urbanism: California Legislation Threatens to Become Law and Build More Housing by Martha Ekdahl The bill, AB 2923, specifically targets the San Francisco Bay Area—making it easier than ever for the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) to build housing on the land it owns around its transit stations. Light and Air, Sound and Fury; or, Was the Equitable Life Building Panic Only About Shadows? by Nolan Gray In city after city, zoning was pitched as a way to preserve property values. And as the Federal Housing Administration marched across the country as a kind of dark Johnny Appleseed for Euclidean zoning, demanding use segregation, single-family zoning, and low densities in exchange for subsidized mortgages, the agency always defended its demands as an attempt to protect property values. Video: How Zoning Laws Are Holding Back America’s Cities by Nolan Gray It’s an understatement to say that zoning is a dry subject. But in a new video for the Institute for Humane Studies, Josh Oldham and Professor Sanford Ikeda (a regular contributor to this blog) manage to breath new life into this subject, accessibly explaining how zoning has transformed America’s cities. The Foreign Buyers Are Taking Over (Not!) by Michael Lewyn A headline in the Boston Globe screams: “Boston’s new luxury towers appear to house few local residents.” The headline is based on a report by the leftist Institute for Policy Studies, which claims that in twelve Boston condo buildings, “64 percent do not claim a residential exemption, […]

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